JÔ SOARES NO PÂNICO | UMA HOMENAGEM

JÔ SOARES NO PÂNICO | UMA HOMENAGEM


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Unemployment and Housing Data Point to Bleak Outlook

Existing home sales fell to 4.86 million units, about 2.6% below consensus estimates of 4.94 million units. The report also cited a huge deterioration in median home prices, down to $215,000 or down over 6% from last year. This highlights the bleak outlook for the housing market, as the housing market has yet to find a bottom. With mortgage rates set to only head higher in the coming months, I would expect more defaults on mortgages as there seems to be no slowdown in the turmoil of the housing market.

University of Michigan Sentiment Index (MSI) – Deceptively Positive and Optimistic?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index took an unexpected rise to 61.2, vs consensus estimates of 56.4 (which was a 28 year low), due primarily to the recent pullback in oil prices and slight recovery in the equities market. I would be wary of this though, as I believe the current rally is just another bear market rally. We will probably continue to see downward pressure on stocks after next Friday’s unemployment numbers, which are pointing to a bleak employment outlook, which is never good because consumers drive a good amount of this economy today and without jobs, there is just not a lot of good they can do for the GDP. As the report stated, “The data still indicate an ongoing downturn in spending that will last well into 2009.” Hence, I would not read too much into these numbers.

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